Behind the Scenes of the Global Meat Crisis: Cattle Herds Are Shrinking
The decline in cattle numbers in Brazil, the US, and China, rising feed costs, and cuts in poultry production in India are triggering a global meat crisis.
The shrinking of cattle herds in the world's leading producer countries—notably Brazil, the US, and China—along with rising feed costs and production challenges in the agricultural sector, is opening the door to a global meat crisis that threatens markets and consumers.
Global Cattle Herds Are Dwindling
Cattle herds are shrinking simultaneously in Brazil, the US, and China, which rank as the world's top three cattle producers.
According to US Department of Agriculture data, Brazil's cattle inventory has declined by approximately 8 percent compared to 2024.
Historic Declines in the US and China
While cattle numbers in the US have dropped to historic lows, declines have also been recorded in the ratios of breeding cows and calves.
In China, cattle inventory has decreased significantly since the beginning of 2024, leading to a drop in total meat supply.
Factors Driving Down Production
In Brazil, restrictions imposed by export markets and the herd-replenishing cycle are directly impacting production.
In the United States, droughts affecting vast areas have narrowed pastures and increased feed costs.
Biological Limits and the Time Factor
Even though high prices are being passed on to consumers, it is not possible to rapidly increase supply due to the biological cycles of cattle production.
For producers to rebuild their herds, they must retain female animals and commit to a multi-year process.
Shift Toward Poultry in Europe
Across the European Union, consumption of beef and pork is declining, while poultry farming is coming to the fore due to its short production cycle.
Over the next decade, poultry consumption is expected to increase, with the sector's flexible structure filling this gap.
Poultry Crisis in India
The rapid surge in soybean meal prices in a short period has put poultry producers in India in a difficult position.
Facing escalating costs, the All India Poultry Breeders' Association has decided to cut production by 25 percent.