Conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray Region Risks Large-Scale War
Resumed fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray region and the formation of a new opposition alliance are jeopardizing the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement and threaten to draw neighboring Eritrea into the conflict.
The resumption of fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray region is bringing the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement to the brink of collapse, while the crisis risks escalating into a broader regional war with the potential involvement of neighboring Eritrea.
Fighting Resumes in the Tigray Region
Federal and Tigray forces are blaming each other for the resumption of fighting nearly four years after the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement. Following the capture of Mekelle Airport by Tigrayan forces, Ethiopian Airlines has suspended its flights to the region.
Former Enemies Join Forces Against the Government
The Tigray People's Liberation Front has formed a new alliance with six opposition groups aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. Members of this alliance include the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army.
The 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement on the Brink of Collapse
The Pretoria agreement, which ended large-scale fighting in November 2022, left disputes over territory, security, and accountability unresolved. Experts and officials state that the agreement is now obsolete and at a breaking point.
Eritrea's Risk of Involvement and Regional Tension
Relations between Addis Ababa and Eritrea—which sided with Ethiopian federal forces during the previous Tigray war—have deteriorated sharply in recent times. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of supporting armed dissidents.
Civilians Again Face the Greatest Danger
Researchers estimate that the previous war caused massive civilian casualties in Tigray due to famine and the collapse of the healthcare system. Warnings are being issued that a new conflict would cut off food and medicine supplies, deepening civilian suffering.