Global Economy and Credit Outlook Warning from Fitch Ratings

International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings announced that global credit risks have increased since the publication of its latest Global Risk Outlook report, noting a deterioration in key risk areas during the third quarter of 2026.

Fitch Ratings warned that risks regarding bond yields, oil prices, and artificial intelligence investments could negatively impact the global credit outlook. The agency reported that global credit risks have increased following the latest report, noting a deterioration in key risk areas in the third quarter of 2026. Stating that market indicators are giving warning signals, it was expressed that the rise in bond yields reflects an increase in real interest rates, while concerns have grown in stock markets that artificial intelligence investments may have gone to extremes.

Drawing attention to the fact that the Fed's new chair has pursued a more hawkish monetary policy, the statement recalled that the bank raised interest rates unanimously in September for the first time in three years. It was stated that with expectations of another rate hike this year, the policy rate forecast has been updated to 4.25 percent throughout 2027. Although Fitch's baseline scenario projects that the US 10-year bond yield will decline to 4.8 percent by the end of 2027, the risk remains that yields could come in above forecasts. It was noted that higher oil prices could be seen if disruptions to oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz continue.