BofA's TCMB Interest Rate Expectation Report
Bank of America economist Hande Küçük expects the central bank to cut interest rates in October and then keep them steady until the second quarter.
Bank of America economist Hande Küçük, in a report sharing new expectations regarding the policy rate of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, projected that interest rates could remain steady for a long time following a potential cut in October.
Interest Rate Cut and Steady Retention Expectation
BofA economist Hande Küçük stated that they expect the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey to lower the policy rate at the October meeting and keep it steady thereafter until the second quarter.
Emphasis on Inflation and Geopolitical Risk
The report emphasized that due to high oil prices, geopolitical risks, and still high inflation expectations, a meaningful rate-cut cycle appears difficult.
Inflation Pressures and Base Effect
In April, inflation pressures in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to ease, and positive energy-driven base effects are anticipated to begin emerging.
Year-End Interest Rate and Inflation Forecasts
Assuming that average Brent crude oil prices will be 85 dollars per barrel in 2026 and 75 dollars in 2027, the policy rate is estimated to be 36 percent at the end of 2026 and 32 percent at the end of 2027.