Gold Report from Deutsche Bank: Upward Trend in the Medium Term
Deutsche Bank states that central bank and institutional purchases support gold and expects a rise in the medium term, while forecasting a weakening in silver and a record supply squeeze in copper.
Daniel Ghali, Head of Metals Research at Deutsche Bank, stated that the weight of gold in investor portfolios has declined, but purchases by central banks and institutional investors continue to support prices.
Investor Positions and Demand Gap
It was noted that the weight of gold in investor portfolios has dropped to low levels and oversold conditions have emerged in the market. Current investor positioning bears similarities to the 2022 period.
Bond Yields and Gold's Resilience
Although the US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5 percent and oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel, gold has not fallen to a new low since July.
It was recorded that net short positions of trend-following funds reached their highest level since October 2021, while long positions of discretionary traders decreased by 55 percent compared to June.
Short-Term Risks and Holiday Effect
It was stated that downside risks in gold prices have not completely disappeared in the short term, and market liquidity may decrease due to the Golden Week holiday in China.
It was projected that a sharp sell-off wave might be experienced during this period, but this could be one of the last strong selling waves in the market.
Weakening Outlook in Silver
It was stated that the silver market has transitioned from a supply squeeze to a period of oversupply. It was reported that London's silver inventories reached their highest level since November 2024.
Supply Squeeze in the Copper Market
It was emphasized that one of the most severe supply squeezes seen since the 1980s is taking place in the copper market.
Deutsche Bank evaluates that, due to the current supply outlook, copper has the highest upside potential in the short and medium term.