US Dollar Exchange Rate Expectations and Pensioner Salary Scenarios Following the Medium-Term Program
Foreign institutions' foreign exchange forecasts in light of the Medium-Term Program and inflation-based scenarios for the January 2027 hike for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees have become clear.
Following the announcement of the Medium-Term Program, international financial institutions shared their exchange rate projections for the end of 2026 and the 2027 period. Over the same period, potential hike rates and lowest salary scenarios for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees in January were calculated based on inflation forecasts.
2026 Fourth Quarter US Dollar Rate Projections
According to foreign institution forecasts compiled by Bloomberg, expectations for the USD/TRY exchange rate in the final quarter of 2026 vary between 49.07 and 54.01 TRY. While Danske Bank projected the highest figure, institutions such as ING, SEB, and Commerzbank shared estimates around the 53 TRY level.
2027 First Quarter Exchange Rate Expectations
In international bank forecasts for the first quarter of next year, exchange rate levels are projected to range between 51.20 TRY and 58.74 TRY. Danske Bank offered the highest projection at 58.74 TRY, while Bank Julius Baer shared the lowest estimate on the list at 51.20 TRY.
Widening Gap in the Second Quarter of 2027
It is observed that the gap between institutions widens further in forecasts regarding the second quarter of 2027. While Danske Bank pointed to the highest level at 63.27 TRY, Nomura reported 54 TRY and Bank Julius Baer reported the lowest estimates at the 53.10 TRY level.
Retiree Salary Hike and Inflation Data
The hike rate that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in January 2027 will become clear based on the inflation of the second half of 2026. The inflation for the first six months announced in July was realized at 17.76 percent, and the lowest retiree pension was raised to 23,552 liras. Meanwhile, inflation for the first two months of the second half of the year was recorded at 3.65 percent.
Four Scenarios for the January 2027 Retiree Hike
In line with the data from the Medium-Term Program, the Central Bank report, the market participants survey, and the economic outlook index, four separate scenarios were prepared for the January hike: 8.70 percent, 9.04 percent, 9.92 percent, and 10.67 percent. Within the framework of these calculations, the lowest retiree pension is expected to reach a range between 25,601 TRY and 26,065 TRY.