Super El Niño to amplify agricultural supply shock and trigger global prices
It has been reported that the Super El Niño expected to take effect in the autumn-winter period of 2026 could contribute to a 14-16% increase in global food commodity prices, and that hundreds of thousands of additional deaths could occur due to extreme temperatures.
The Super El Niño expected to take effect in the autumn-winter period of 2026 carries the risk of causing supply shocks in agricultural products and 14-16% increases in global food commodity prices. Experts point out that extreme temperatures could also generate a severe humanitarian cost.
Historical El Niño Expectation
According to meteorological experts, the probability of experiencing a very strong El Niño in the autumn-winter period of 2026 remains above 90 percent. For the October-December period, a historical probability of exceeding the strongest events recorded since 1950 is projected at 75 percent.
Increase in Food Commodity Prices
According to assessments by Beroe, a global agricultural strategies consultancy firm, a prolonged El Niño, combined with fertilizer shortages, high energy costs, and geopolitical tensions, could contribute to a 14-16% increase in global food commodity prices.
Supply Risks by Product
The impact is expected to emerge in wheat, corn, rice, coffee, sugar, cocoa, soybeans, and palm oil. With the addition of extreme rainfall and disease pressure in West Africa, cocoa ranks among the products bearing the highest short-term supply risk.
Regional Sugar and Palm Oil Dynamics
While risks on the sugar side remain more regional, the main pressure on palm oil is expected to become pronounced in 2027. Aging plantations in Malaysia and Thailand, along with biodiesel demand, will directly shape the price outlook.
Food Logistics and Transportation
The negative impact of drought on river and canal transportation can increase logistics costs. The decline in transit capacity in the Panama Canal also constitutes an additional vulnerability factor for food and commodity trade.
Humanitarian Cost of Extreme Temperatures
Researchers at the Climate Impact Lab within the University of Chicago calculated that up to 451,000 additional deaths could occur due to the temperature effects of the current Super El Niño. Temperatures over land are expected to rise above normal.
Additional Death Estimates by Country
In the period from September 2026 to February 2027, the highest additional death estimates were made for Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan. Warnings were also issued similarly for the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, India, and Pakistan.